热度 1|
1--"Give me liberty or give me
death."
2--When Patrick Henry, the governor of
Virginia, said these words in 1775,
3--he could never have imagined
4--just how much they would come to
resonate with American generations to come.
5--At the time, these words were earmarked
6--and targeted against the British,
7--but over the last 200 years, they've
come to embody
8--what many Westerners believe,
9--that freedom is the most cherished
value,
10--and that the best systems of politics
and economics
11--have freedom embedded in them.
12--Who could blame them?
13--Over the past hundred years, the
combination
14--of liberal democracy and private
capitalism
15--has helped to catapult the United
States
16--and Western countries
17--to new levels of economic development.
18--In the United States over the past
hundred years,
19--incomes have increased 30 times,
20--and hundreds of thousands of people
have been moved out of poverty.
21--Meanwhile, American ingenuity and
innovation has helped to spur industrialization
22--and also helped in the creation and the
building
23--of things like household appliances
24--such as refrigerators and televisions,
25--motor vehicles and even the mobile
phones in your pockets.
26--It's no surprise, then, that even at
the depths
27--of the private capitalism crisis,
28--President Obama said,
29--"The question before us is not
whether the market
30--is a force for good or ill.
31--Its power to generate wealth and to
expand freedom
32--is unmatched."
33--Thus, there's understandably
34--a deep-seated presumption among
Westerners
35--that the whole world will decide to
adopt
36--private capitalism as the model of
economic growth, liberal democracy, and will continue
37--to prioritize political rights over
economic rights.
38--However, to many who live in the
emerging markets,
39--this is an illusion, and even though
the Universal Declaration of Human Rights,
40--which was signed in 1948,
41--was unanimously adopted,
42--what it did was to mask a schism
43--that has emerged between developed and
developing countries,
44--and the ideological beliefs
45--between political and economic rights.
46--This schism has only grown wider.
47--Today, many people who live in the
emerging markets,
48--where 90 percent of the world's
population lives,
49--believe that the Western obsession
50--with political rights is beside the
point,
51--and what is actually important is
delivering on food, shelter,
52--education and healthcare.
53--"Give me liberty or give me
death"
54--is all well and good if you can afford
it,
55--but if you're living on less than one
dollar a day,
56--you're far too busy trying to survive
57--and to provide for your family
58--than to spend your time going around
59--trying to proclaim and defend
democracy.
60--Now, I know many people in this room
61--and around the world will think,
62--"Well actually, this is hard to
grasp,"
63--because private capitalism and liberal
democracy
64--are held sacrosanct.
65--But I ask you today, what would you do
66--if you had to choose?
67--What if you had to choose
68--between a roof over your head
69--and the right to vote?
70--Over the last 10 years,
71--I've had the privilege to travel to
over 60 countries,
72--many of them in the emerging markets,
73--in Latin America, Asia,
74--and my own continent of Africa.
75--I've met with presidents, dissidents,
76--policymakers, lawyers, teachers,
77--doctors and the man on the street,
78--and through these conversations,
79--it's become clear to me
80--that many people in the emerging
markets
81--believe that there's actually a split
occurring
82--between what people believe
ideologically
83--in terms of politics and economics in
the West
84--and that which people believe in the
rest of the world.
85--Now, don't get me wrong.
86--I'm not saying people in the emerging
markets
87--don't understand democracy,nor am I
saying that they wouldn't ideally
88--like to pick their presidents or their
leaders.Of course they would.
89--However, I am saying that on balance,
90--they worry more about
91--where their living standard
improvements are going to come from,
92--and how it is their governments can
deliver for them,
93--than whether or not the government
94--was elected by democracy.
95--The fact of the matter
96--is that this has become a very poignant
question
97--because there is for the first time in
a long time
98--a real challenge to the Western
ideological systems
99--of politics and economics,
100--and this is a system that is embodied
by China.
101--And rather than have private
capitalism, they have state capitalism.
102--Instead of liberal democracy, they
have de-prioritized the democratic system.
103--And they have also decided to
prioritize
104--economic growth over political rights.
105--I put it to you today that it is this
system
106--that is embodied by China that is
gathering momentum amongst people
107--in the emerging markets as the system
to follow,
108--because they believe increasingly that
it is the system
109--that will promise the best and fastest
improvements
110--in living standards in the shortest
period of time.
111--If you will indulge me, I will spend a
few moments
112--explaining to you first
113--why economically they've come to this
belief.
114--First of all, it's China's economic
performance over the past 30 years.
115--She's been able to produce record
economic growth
116--and meaningfully move many people out
of poverty,
117--specifically putting a meaningful dent
in poverty
118--by moving over 300 million people
119--(into...) out of indigence.
120--It's not just in economics,
121--but it's also in terms of living
standards.
122--We see that in China, 28 percent of
people
123--had secondary school access.
124--Today, it's closer to 82 percent.
125--So in its totality, economic
improvement has been quite significant.
126--Second, China has been able
127--to meaningfully improve its income
inequality
128--without changing the political
construct.
129--Today, the United States and China
130--are the two leading economies in the
world.
131--They have vastly different political
systems and different economic systems,
132--one with private capitalism,
133--another one broadly with state
capitalism.
134--However, these two countries
135--have the identical GINI Coefficient,
136--which is a measure of income equality.
137--Perhaps what is more disturbing is
that China's income equality
138--has been improving in recent times,
139--whereas that of the United States
140--has been declining.
141--Thirdly, people in the emerging
markets
142--look at China's amazing and legendary
143--infrastructure rollout.
144--This is not just about China
145--building roads and ports and railways
146--in her own country --
147--she's been able to build 85,000
kilometers
148--of road network in China and surpass
that of the United States --
149--but even if you look to places like
Africa,
150--China has been able to help tar the
distance
151--of Cape Town to Cairo,
152--which is 9,000 miles,
153--or three times the distance of New
York to California.
154--Now this is something that people can
see and point to.
155--Perhaps it's no surprise
156--that in a 2007 Pew survey, when
surveyed,
157--Africans in 10 countries said
158--they thought that the Chinese were
doing
159--amazing things to improve their
livelihoods
160--by wide margins, by as much as 98
percent.
161--Finally, China is also providing
innovative solutions
162--to age-old social problems that the
world faces.
163--If you travel to Mogadishu, Mexico
City or Mumbai,
164--you find that dilapidated
infrastructure and logistics
165--continue to be a stumbling block
166--to the delivery of medicine and
healthcare
167--in the rural areas.
168--However, through a network of
state-owned enterprises,
169--the Chinese have been able to go into
these rural areas,
170--using their companies
171--to help deliver on these healthcare
solutions.
172--Ladies and gentlemen, it's no surprise
173--that around the world, people are
pointing at what China is doing and saying,
174--"I like that. I want that.
175--I want to be able to do what China's
doing. That is the system that seems to work."
176--I'm here to also tell you
177--that there are lots of shifts
occurring
178--around what China is doing
179--in the democratic stance.
180--In particular, there is growing doubt
181--among people in the emerging markets,
182--when people now believe that democracy
183--is no longer to be viewed
184--as a prerequisite for economic growth.
185--In fact, countries like Taiwan,
Singapore, Chile,
186--not just China, have shown that
actually,
187--it's economic growth that is a
prerequisite
188--for democracy.
189--In a recent study, the evidence has
shown
190--that income is the greatest
determinant
191--of how long a democracy can last.
192--The study found that if your per
capita income
193--is about 1,000 dollars a year,
194--your democracy will last about eight
and a half years.
195--If your per capita income is between
196--2,000 and 4,000 dollars per year,
197--then you're likely to only get 33
years of democracy.
198--And only if your per capita income
199--is above 6,000 dollars a year
200--will you have democracy come hell or
high water.
201--What this is telling us
202--is that we need to first establish a
middle class
203--that is able to hold the government
accountable.
204--But perhaps it's also telling us
205--that we should be worried about going
206--around the world and shoehorning
democracy,
207--because ultimately we run the risk
208--of ending up with illiberal
democracies,
209--democracies that in some sense
210--could be worse than the authoritarian
governments
211--that they seek to replace.
212--The evidence around illiberal
democracies
213--is quite depressing.
214--Freedom House finds that although 50
percent of the world's countries today are democratic,
215--70 percent of those countries are
illiberal
216--in the sense that people don't have
free speech
217--or freedom of movement.
218--But also, we're finding from Freedom
House
219--in a study that they published last
year
220--that freedom has been on the decline
221--every year for the past seven years.
222--What this says
223--is that for people like me
224--who care about liberal democracy,
225--is we've got to find a more
sustainable way
226--of ensuring that we have a sustainable
form
227--of democracy in a liberal way,
228--and that has its roots in economics.
229--But it also says that as China moves
230--toward being the largest economy in
the world,
231--something that is expected to happen
232--by experts in 2016,
233--that this schism between the political
234--and economic ideologies of the West
and the rest
235--is likely to widen.
236--What might that world look like?
237--Well, the world could look like
238--more state involvement and state
capitalism;
239--greater protectionisms of
nation-states;
240--but also, as I just pointed out a
moment ago, ever-declining political rights
241--and individual rights.
242--The question that is left for us in
general
243--is, what then should the West be
doing?
244--And I suggest that they have two
options. The West can either compete or cooperate.
245--If the West chooses to compete with
the Chinese model,
246--and in effect go around the world
247--and continue to try and push an agenda
248--of private capitalism and liberal
democracy,
249--this is basically going against
headwinds,
250--but it also would be a natural stance
251--for the West to take
252--because in many ways it is the
antithesis
253--of the Chinese model
254--of de-prioritizing democracy, and
state capitalism.
255--Now the fact of the matter is,
256--if the West decides to compete,
257--it will create a wider schism.
258--The other option is for the West to
cooperate,
259--and by cooperating I mean giving the
emerging market countries the flexibility
260--to figure out in an organic way
261--what political and economic system
262--works best for them.
263--Now I'm sure some of you in the room
264--will be thinking, well, this is like
ceding to China, and this is a way, in other words,
265--for the West to take a back seat.
266--But I put it to you that if the United
States and European countries
267--want to remain globally influential,
268--they may have to consider cooperating
269--in the short term in order to compete,
270--and by that, they might have to focus
more aggressively on economic outcomes
271--to help create the middle class
272--and therefore be able to hold
government accountable
273--and create the democracies that we
really want.
274--The fact of the matter is that instead
of going around the world
275--and haranguing countries for engaging
with China,
276--the West should be encouraging its own
businesses to trade and invest in these regions.
277--Instead of criticizing China for bad
behavior,
278--the West should be showing how it is
279--that their own system of politics and
economics
280--is the superior one.
281--And instead of shoehorning democracy
282--around the world,
283--perhaps the West should take a leaf
284--out of its own history book
285--and remember that it takes a lot of
patience in order to develop the models
286--and the systems that you have today.
287--Indeed, the Supreme Court Justice
Stephen Breyer
288--reminds us that it took the United
States
289--nearly 170 years
290--from the time that the Constitution
was written
291--for there to be equal rights in the
United States. Some people would argue that today
292--there is still no equal rights.
293--In fact, there are groups who would
argue
294--that they still do not have equal
rights under the law.
295--At its very best,
296--the Western model speaks for itself.
297--It's the model that put food on the
table.
298--It's the refrigerators.
299--It put a man on the moon. But the fact
of the matter is,
300--although people back in the day
301--used to point at the Western countries
and say,
302--"I want that, I like that,"
303--there's now a new person in town
304--in the form of a country, China.
305--Today, generations are looking at
China
306--and saying, "China can produce
infrastructure,
307--China can produce economic growth,
308--and we like that."
309--Because ultimately, the question
before us,
310--and the question before
311--seven billion people on the planet is,
how can we create prosperity?
312--People who care and will pivot towards
the model
313--of politics and economics
314--in a very rational way,
315--to those models that will ensure that
they can have better living standards
316--in the shortest period of time.
317--As you leave here today,
318--I would like to leave you
319--with a very personal message,
320--which is what it is that I believe
321--we should be doing as individuals,
322--and this is really about being
open-minded,
323--open-minded to the fact that our hopes
and dreams
324--of creating prosperity for people
around the world,
325--creating and meaningfully putting a
dent in poverty
326--for hundreds of millions of people,
327--has to be based in being open-minded,
328--because these systems have good things
329--and they have bad things.
330--Just to illustrate,
331--I've went into my annals of myself.
332--That's a picture of me.
333--Awww. (Laughter)
334--I was born and raised in Zambia in
1969.
335--At the time of my birth,
336--blacks were not issued birth
certificates,
337--and that law only changed in 1973.
338--This is an affidavit from the Zambian
government.
339--I bring this to you to tell you that
in 40 years,
340--I've gone from not being recognized as
a human being
341--to standing in front of the
illustrious TED crowd today
342--to talk to you about my views.
343--In this vein, we can increase economic
growth.
344--We can meaningfully put a dent in
poverty.
345--But also, it's going to require
346--that we look at our assumptions,
347--assumptions and strictures that we've
grown up with
348--around democracy, around private
capitalism, around what creates economic growth
349--and reduces poverty and creates
freedoms.
350--We might have to tear those books up
351--and start to look at other options and
be open-minded to seek the truth.
352--Ultimately, it's about transforming
the world
353--and making it a better place.
354--Thank you very much.
355--(Applause)