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中美贸易战愈演愈演,中国的底气在哪?

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发表于 2019-5-24 22:28:33 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Trade-war.jpg


the trade war between the world's two largest economies
has escalated dramatically in recent days
and China is fighting back against weaponized US tariffs
with a tough response
what about the American actions cause China to snap
while those talks are stalled
a different form of dialogue is set to begin in Beijing
I asked a leading Chinese scholar
why do we Asians need to appreciate our own civilizations
Welcome to the point
and opinion show coming to you from Beijing
I'm Liuxin
The trade tensions between China and America
has now become a full-blown trade war
even in the eyes of the Chinese authorities
after the U.S. ratcheted up pressure on China
with higher tariffs and threats of more to come
Beijing punched back with retaliation
and for the first time used the term trade war
On Monday a commentary read on prime-time national television said
China does not want to fight a trade war
but if given no choice, we will not falter
China's reaction is clear it is ready for talks
just as it is ready for a trade war
A commentary adds that
the Chinese nation has witnessed 5,000 years of history
and has never failed to overcome its challenges
The peace caught fire on the social media
collecting 3.4 billion views in 24 hours
What explains the Chinese reaction
and where is all this heading
joining me from the Beijing studio is
John Gong, an economics professor
at the University of International Business & Economics
and from Washington DC, professor Dennis Wilder
who has the initiative for US China dialogue
on global issues at Georgetown University
Gentlemen, welcome to the point
Now let's read this commentary once again in greater details
As I said, China says it doesn't want to fight a trade war
but if given no choice, we will not falter
China's reaction is clear, it's ready for talks
just as it is ready for a trade war
Professor Gong, how do you read such words
and as I mentioned for the very first time
on national, on prime-time national TV, China's state media
using such term and voicing such strong position
I think it demonstrates the Chinese government's
determination to face the challenge
it demonstrates the government's determination
to continue to talk or not backing off from the dialogue
you know, there are challenges ahead
and I think our government is very clear that
we are not afraid of confronting this big challenge
if the United States determines to, you know,
go through a trade war
and I think that another day a trade war
is not of a existential consequence to our country
In history, you know, we have seen trade wars lasting many years
For example, you know, America's northern neighbor Canada
was indeed engaged in trade war
with the United States for over 50 years up to the Second World War
and Canada felt fine, you know
So I think it's...it's not so much of a scary scenario
even if we didn't come to conclusion
but of course,
I think that government's hope is to still come to conclusion
especially, a conclusion that is going to be reached
by the two leaders of the two countries
Yeah, well, how much confidence does China have
in saying, if you want to trade war
bring it on
judging from its economic performance at this moment
because after all, you talk about trade war between
the United States and its northern neighbor
China was never engaged such a trade war
especially in contemporary times with the United States
who knows what might happen
does the Chinese leadership have a rather clear idea
of how much they can bear
Well, I think these states, of course
these statements, of course are backed by the economic realities
As I said in the past, the total trade with the United States
represents something less than two percent of China's GDP
so even if we go to the, the worst scenario
the worst scenario that we entirely right off the Sino-US trade
and most it represents, you know,
about less than 2% of China's GDP
which is something we can bear
so, and also I think in vice-premier Liu He's press interview
after the talk with ambassador Lighthizer  
he said that you know, we are in a...
still in a very good economic shape
he thinks that the bottom
has already reached in the last quarter of 2018
and we're starting to seen signs of bouncing back
in the first quarter
I'm a little bit less optimistic than he is
but I still think that
we are actually very close to getting out of this bottom
So, so I think, you know, and he also mentioned we have a fiscal policy
and monetary policy of the ways that we can use to stimulate economies
I think we have all kinds of options...
Professor Wilder, how was this piece going down in the United States
for I'm sure some newspaper have carried this piece
actually they have translated and...
and especially the emotions attached in such a piece
How was it read?
Well, I think, not to disagree with your other guests
but we are at a very dangerous point in these trade negotiations
if we don't get a trade deal within the next six to eight weeks
the United States-China relationship is going to tank
it is going to be a situation in which
it's not just about trade
it is about decoupling the two economies
the president has said he wants a deal with the Chinese leader
I think it is now above the pay grade of the negotiators
it is now between the two presidents
and they both need to take very seriously the consequences
for the world economy, for Chinese consumers, for American consumers
if we go to a full trade war
which is what the president of the United States
has threatened by the end of June
what are some of the indicators or some of the, the evidences
that prompted you to make such a judgment, professor louder?
Well, there are new studies out today that
show that many of the Chinese exporters
cannot sustain these level of tariffs on their goods
that these companies only have a 10% margin for profit
and if you go to 25% on the rest of the 300 billion dollars
you will find many jobs lost in China
but you will also find that
the American consumer will now be hit in their pocketbook
So I'm not saying that Americans won't hurt
but I think it is irresponsible for people to say
that the Chinese consumer, the Chinese economy
will not be hurt by this
there will be changes to the supply chains
American companies will pull out of China
and go to Southeast Asia and other locations
I think this is a very serious moment
and both sides need to stop the rhetoric
and get back to the negotiating table
I...I understand that the Chinese is actually not saying that
is...they're actually not saying that
the, the trade war is not going to hurt them
but what they're saying is
if the United States really want to bring on this trade war
then bring it on
but if the United States want to talk, then bring it on
but professor gong, what is your reaction to
what Professor Welder talked about that the much dimmer prospect
I think we need to judge by deeds more than words
I think looking at Chinese government's response
is more than just that article
if you look at the retaliatory tariffs announced so far
it's actually very measured
As a matter of fact, it's kind of ironic that
President Trump said that represents a positive step in a street
So if you look at the...you know, the....the amount of goods
that are going to be covered in the retaliatory tariffs
which ranges between 10% to 25%
it's a very moderate response in my opinion
so that demonstrates Chinese government's willingness to
still come to a negotiating table and work out a solution here
So it's...it's not just all rhetorics here
it's, it's also action that we should look at carefully
but on the other hand indeed, the Chinese official media at least
use very different languages right
and it's what you injected a lot of emotion into this piece
that is the reason why it has gone viral
I mean 3.4 billion views in 24 hours
that means every Chinese
would have had to read it two-three times at least
or two times at least to reach such a number
what is the change here
then what is behind the change here, professor Gong
I think now, the... previously we have
still have some debates, it becomes very controversial
whether how should we deal with the Americans
Now I think the public's all behind the government now
the public is aware...aware of the situation
and if...the worst scenario indeed happens
I think the, the public in general
is going to be behind the government
it is actually very important
because this supports consumer confidence
as well as investor confidence
So I think, so as I said, it's not just about, you know
the, the total amount of exports to the United States
value added, embedded in that exports
it's also the consumer confidence reflected
for example, in the performance of stock market
people's purchasing decisions, investment decisions
you know, these things really come I think
so as long as the public is behind the government
as long as the public supports the government's negotiating stands
so I think I will still in good shape
Yeah well, professor Wilder, what is your...
Wilder, what is your reaction or
what is the American people's reaction to this
now that, actually professor, uh...actually president Trump
kind of helped the Chinese to rally behind their leader
and stand in one or speak in one voice
about how to react to the US's attitude
Do you think that is...how should I say...
basically not helping the US's negotiating position?
Well I certainly have my differences with the president
on some of the ways that he speaks publicly
and I would think that this is a time to get out of the public sphere
and for the two leaders to have some serious phone calls
and to prepare to meet at the G20
there is a sweet spot to be found in these negotiations
we've actually come very close to understandings
on many of the issues that separate us
but... the questions now are rather limited
Yeah...bu... and we can come to a solution
But, but, I just want to ask you this question
what do you think, what do you think the American administration
understand what trigger such an emotional
such a massive response from the Chinese public
I think that they need a bit of education on this point
I think they do not understand the history of unequal treaties in China
the feeling of being bullied by the West
the very sensitive anniversaries of this year
so I do think there is some degree of misunderstanding
on the US side of how harshly
the Chinese people are going to react to this
and so I think that again
I would like to see the rhetoric dialed-back on the American side
And, and also on the Chinese side
Professor Gong
Yeah well, I think this, you know
you raised a very important point here
I think this is truly important
The, the issue that we are disagreeing upon
is not the substance in my...in my opinion
regarding the content of this Agreement
it's really about the formalities, really about the enforcement
enforcement mechanism and here...
or the language, or the style
if the... well I mean, the important thing is that
there are things in their agreements
we understand as reporting a precedent US
the concerning legislative timetables in China
and you know this seems to me totally crazy
I mean this is even anti-constitution
we're making an analogy here
this is like President Donald Trump make an agreement
with Mexico government hitting across there
saying that the United States government
is committed to pass a law in Congress
for a budget of 10 billion dollars to build a war
I mean this is totally crazy, nobody does that
Yeah so it's the same kind of logic here
and the negotiating team's mind, the Unites States spawn
needs to understand it
this is something that the Chinese public just cannot swallow
Okay, we have to leave it there
I think 3.4 billion is one such number
probably that sends a very strong message
Professor John Gong of the University of
International Business & Economics
and professor Dennis Wilder of Georgetown University
you're watching the point with me, Liuxin
We'll take a short break and when we come back
we'll explore the question what are the traits, values
or circumstance that unite all Asians.


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发表于 2019-5-25 12:42:19 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 steve 于 2019-5-25 12:44 编辑

之前美国总统奥巴马曾对中国生产的汽车轮胎大幅度增加关税35%,称中国轮胎进口数量飙升让美国工人失业。 但是,2012年彼得森国际经济研究所的研究发现,2011年,美国消费者因为轮胎价格上涨所承担的代价大约为11亿美元。中美贸易战我们不怕,美国三板斧过后,就会回到老毛的《论持久战》理论上去。
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